Inside Mississippi State Sports



Bulldogs or Rebels: Who's More Deserving?
by bradlocke
 Inside Mississippi State Sports
4 months ago | 909 views | 6 6 comments | 7 7 recommendations | email to a friend | print | permalink

At first glance, one would think Mississippi State is more deserving of an NCAA tournament berth than Ole Miss. Yet every bracket projection I’ve seen give the Rebels a better shot at making the field of 65, despite the fact that MSU won both meetings between the teams this season. It’s one of the many staples of college basketball’s postseason paradigm: One or two games don’t matter nearly as much as the bigger picture and the numbers that define that picture.

Jerry Palm, for example, currently has Ole Miss in as a No. 11 seed. MSU’s not even among his first four out.

So anyway, let us look at those numbers that the NCAA selection committee so closely scrutinizes, and maybe we can surmise whether Ole Miss really is more deserving of a bid than MSU. (Note: These numbers come from RealTimeRPI.com)

• Records: MSU 21-10 (9-7 SEC), Ole Miss 21-9 (9-7 SEC)

• RPI: MSU 69, Ole Miss 55

• Strength of schedule: MSU 106, Ole Miss 74

• Quality wins*: MSU 7, Ole Miss 6

• Bad losses: MSU 4, Ole Miss 1

• Record vs. top 100 RPI: MSU 7-6, Ole Miss 6-8

• Record vs. top 50 RPI: MSU 1-4, Ole Miss 2-5

• Record vs. top 25 RPI: MSU 0-4, Ole Miss 1-4

*–RealTimeRPI.com seems to have a rather loose definition of what is a “quality win”; for example, MSU’s victory over Georgia counted as a quality win.

We’ll call it a push as far as overall record. Otherwise, Ole Miss has the edge in five of the seven categories above. The RPI and strength of schedule are the two most people look at first, and so those are two huge pluses for the Rebs. As for the other categories, MSU is right there with its rival.

As for the quality wins I touched on, the biggest one for Ole Miss is that triumph over Kansas State (RPI: 6), the nation’s No. 9-ranked team. For MSU, its best win was against Old Dominion (RPI: 29), the Colonial Athletic Association champ.

Now, I know that many of you would quickly point back to State’s two wins over Ole Miss (80-75 in Oxford, 71-63 in Oxford) in arguing for the Bulldogs. And it’s a fine point to make. Problem is, MSU isn’t playing like the team that beat the Rebels, and unless it regains that form in Nashville this weekend, MSU fans could see a most unfortunate scenario unfold on Selection Sunday: Ole Miss going dancing while the Bulldogs settle for the NIT.

Your thoughts?

comments (6)
« n8dawg wrote on Wednesday, Mar 10 at 10:05 AM »
sorry dawginheat. you already said what i was trying to say. how 'bout this one: could there be a way where state and ole miss both get into the tourney?
« n8dawg wrote on Wednesday, Mar 10 at 10:03 AM »
what if ole miss loses its first game (against tennessee?) and state wins its first game (against fla. / aub)? will that knock ole miss out? will it get state in?

personally i can see ole miss losing, state winning, and then vandy beating state. if that happens, then probably neither state nor ole miss will go dancing.
« dawginheat wrote on Tuesday, Mar 09 at 10:37 PM »
For State to jump UM, UM will need to lose it's first game and State needs to win two (IMO).
« rriffe wrote on Tuesday, Mar 09 at 07:50 PM »
well, if the later happens I may have to slit my wrists. Lol.
« mackjay wrote on Tuesday, Mar 09 at 04:36 PM »
Considering the records of some of the "bubble" teams ranked ahead of both Ole Miss and State, I wonder what the NCAA raters are smoking. Part of the problem that both our teams face is a Kentucky and Vanderbilt are having years to remember, and for Kentucky it is hard to produce a standout season. And since OT loses count the same as 85-50 blowuts, the Rebs OT loss at K-ville and State's OT at the Hump don't mean a thing. And both had ?-calls at crunch time in both games. State beats Florida and makes the finals they're in. Ole Miss has gotta beat Tenn, and if the emulate South Carolina vs Kentucky (that game shouldn't count against anyone) the bubble moves on.
« Dawgfan01 wrote on Tuesday, Mar 09 at 04:25 PM »
I think MSU needs to at least get to the SEC Championship game in order to have a shot to get an at large bid. I don't think MSU will get in the dance this year, they are just too inconsistent. Who is this team? The one that gave UK all they wanted with out their leading scorer, or are they the team that got owned by Rider, UT at home?