The stirrings of gubernatorial and other statewide campaigns – whose intensity and vast spending are a full year distant – will draw thousands of people with intense interest to get a whiff and a look this week at the Neshoba County Fair.

Everybody in Mississippi knows about the fair and its reputation for showcasing confirmed, rising and wannabe politicians on the stage of a broiling pavilion offering none of the amenities of comfortable life, but plenty of action.

The fair this year is where the first hints of promises to come can be heard, and it’s time for Mississippians to start listening carefully for meaningless rhetoric and unachievable proposals.

The pie-in-the sky promises and the pseudo-hot-button issues are more important than usual because Mississippi can’t afford any of them if they would add to the state’s financial burdens.

Most forecasts predict a worse financial situation in 2011 than this year, and nothing that’s deemed credible offers hard evidence to the contrary looking any distance ahead.

Campaign promises sound good, and if they’re delivered with flourish and passion they’ll win some hearts and votes, but they’re mostly meaningless because they have to pass the Legislature.

Even Gov. Haley Barbour’s almost perfectly executed legislative strategy has run into some solid roadblocks because the decisions depend on the House and Senate, too.

The Portland Oregonian editorial board last week offered some good examples of an appealing policy proposal that’s on the referendum ballot Nov. 2, even as that state faces a revenue stream that’s billions in the red by projection:

“Nov. 2, you will be invited to crack down on repeat drunk drivers and two-time sex offenders. Who could have a problem with that?

“One answer: Anybody who relies on Oregon’s cash-strapped government and schools.

“Initiative 13, the latest crime-fighting measure brought to you by Kevin Mannix, a former legislator, serial candidate for governor and skillful petitioner, aims to put repeat sex offenders away for a minimum of 25 years and toughen sanctions on drunk drivers, requiring that third-time offenders spend at least 90 days in jail.

“About now it’s likely you are nodding, yes, yes, yes, to these tougher sentences. Everybody’s sick of reading about convicted sex offenders preying on somebody else or rapists trying to coax the parole board into letting them out of prison. Moreover, nothing Oregon’s doing seems to stop drunk drivers, and why should anybody get one, two, three, four DUI convictions before being tossed in the slammer?

“... In a state with a perilous budget forecast, it is important to begin a serious conversation about any measure that would impose new costs or segregate a significant amount of revenue.

“Never before have voters been asked to increase spending on criminal sentences at the same time their government and schools faced a $2.5 billion shortfall.”

If Oregon’s plight sounds familiar it’s because it’s a lot like Mississippi’s situation. We’ve been through it, and we’ll go through it again, most likely including with a new Legislature and governor in 2012.

If there’s serious talk about adding programs that are popular, parallel, serious conversations must begin about additional revenue for programs that are necessary.

Many longstanding Mississippi promises must be kept, beginning with public education. Beware of campaigning politicians bringing promises without money to pay for them.